• Goal of this segment: Write a report on your findings
I Individual report!
I Main focus: Question/Topic you focused on in the research segment
• What should always be covered:
I Motivation: Why did you pick your topic? Why is it interesting? (Refer back to magazine article and empirical evidence.)I Analysis of Existing Research: What is the state of research on the topic?
Description of research methods, datasets etc.
I Discussion: What is the main takeaway from the literature? Compare and
contrast findings. What is your take on the topic? What is missing in the
existing literature?
Summary of what was presented and worked on throughout the moduleHow Did the Increase in Economic Inequality between 1970 and 1990 Affect Children’s
Educational Attainment?
Author(s): Susan E. Mayer
Source: American Journal of Sociology , Vol. 107, No. 1 (July 2001), pp. 1-32
Published by: The University of Chicago Press
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/323149
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to American Journal of Sociology
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How Did the Increase in Economic
Inequality between 1970 and 1990 Affect
Children’s Educational Attainment?1
Susan E. Mayer
University of Chicago
This study estimates the effect of changes in economic inequality
between 1970 and 1990 on children’s educational attainment. Data
on individual children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
is combined with other data on state characteristics. Growing up in
a state with widespread economic inequality increases educational
attainment for high-income children and lowers it for low-income
children. Most of the effect is due to factors unassociated with family
income or economic segregation in the state. These other factors
include state spending for schooling and the increase in the returns
to schooling over this period.
Disparities in hourly wages, annual earnings, and household income have
all increased over the past generation in the United States. A considerable
amount of research has tried to determine why income inequality grew
over this period (Morris, Bernhardt, and Handcock 1994; Morris and
Western 1999). Much less research has been done on the consequences of
inequality than on its causes. This article estimates the effect of changes
in income inequality on mean educational attainment and on the disparity
in educational attainment between rich and poor children. I also separate
the effect of income inequality that is due to the nonlinear effect of a
1
This research was funded by the Russell Sage Foundation as part of a larger collaboration with Christopher Jencks and Paul Jargowsky. David Knutson, Lenard Lopoo, and Gigi Yuen-Gee Liu provided exemplary research assistance. I am grateful to
participants in the Harris School Faculty Seminar, a MacArthur Network on Inequality
and Economic Performance seminar at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the
Harvard Summer Institute on Inequality and Social Policy for providing useful comments. I especially acknowledge useful comments and criticisms from David Ellwood,
Peter Gottschalk, Christopher Jencks, Erzo Luttmer, Abhijit Banerjee, Duncan Snidel,
and anonymous reviewers. Direct correspondence to Susan Mayer, Harris School, 1155
East 60th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637.
䉷 2001 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.
0002-9602/2001/10701-0001$02.50
AJS Volume 107 Number 1 (July 2001): 1–32
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1
American Journal of Sociology
family’s own income from other effects of inequality. If growing income
inequality contributes to inequality in educational attainment between
children from rich and poor families, inequality in one generation will be
perpetuated in the next generation.
This article focuses entirely on changes in the overall dispersion of
household income. Inequality of household income increased between
1970 and 1980 and increased even more between 1980 and 1990 (Karoly
1993; U.S. Bureau of the Census 1998). Inequality among families with
children also grew (Lichter and Eggebeen 1993). Changes in inequality
between groups, such as blacks and whites or men and women may or
may not parallel changes in the level of overall economic inequality, and
their effect on educational attainment may differ from the effect of overall
economic inequality.
The proportion of 25–29 year olds who had graduated high school or
earned a GED increased from 75.4% in 1970 to 85.4% in 1980, then did
not change between 1980 and 1990 (U.S. Department of Education 1998,
table 8), when inequality increased.2 The percentage of 25–29 year olds
who had enrolled in college declined from 44% in 1970 to 52% in 1980,
and the percentage who had graduated college increased from 16.4% in
1970 to 22.5% in 1980. Neither college enrollment nor college graduation
increased between 1980 and 1990 (U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services 1998).
Ellwood and Kane (1999) show that between the early 1980s and 1992
the proportion of children in the poorest income quartile who went on to
some postsecondary schooling increased from 57% to 60%. But the proportion of children in the top income quartile getting some postsecondary
schooling increased from 81% to 90%. Thus the increase in college entrance rates was greater among affluent than among low-income children,
suggesting that the growth in inequality may have had different effects
on children from different family backgrounds.
HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE EFFECT OF INEQUALITY
Income inequality can affect educational attainment in several ways. The
first is through the incentives provided by higher returns to schooling.
The second is through the declining utility of family income. Income
inequality can also affect educational attainment through processes that
are independent of a family’s own income. Social scientists have identified
at least three such processes. They involve changes in subjective feelings
2
The percentage of 16- to 24-year-old high school graduates who had a GED increased
from 15.8% in 1980 to 17.8% in 1990.
2
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Educational Attainment
of relative deprivation or gratification, changes in the political processes
that shape educational opportunities and costs, and changes in economic
segregation.
Change in Incentives
Part of the growth in inequality in the United States was due to increased
returns to schooling (Murphy and Welch 1992; Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce
1993).3 Because higher returns increase the incentive for children to stay
in school, we would expect educational attainment to increase when economic inequality increases.4
The Declining Utility of Family Income
If the relationship between educational attainment and parental income
is linear, then when the rich gain a dollar and the poor lose a dollar, the
educational attainment of the rich will increase by exactly as much as
the educational attainment of the poor decreases, leaving the mean unchanged. However, suppose that a 1% increase in income generates the
same absolute increment in educational attainment, regardless of whether
income is initially high or low. If the relationship between parental income
and children’s schooling takes this semilogarithmic form, and all else is
equal, a costless redistribution of income from richer to poorer households
will increase children’s mean educational attainment, because shifting a
dollar from the rich to the poor increases the education of poor children
by a larger percentage than it decreases the education of rich children.5
3
Rising returns to schooling is not the main source of inequality growth. The withineducation group variance of income rose almost as fast as the between-group variance
of income (Juhn et al. 1993; Karoly 1993), and educational attainment accounts for
only 15%–20% of the variance in income initially.
4
Welch (1999) notes that the proportion of men working full-time, year around, with
at least one year of college increased greatly after 1980 when the returns to schooling
also increased. Welch takes this as evidence that men responded to the increase in
returns to schooling by getting more schooling and that the increase in schooling is
therefore a benefit of the rise in inequality. However, the test of the response to the
rise in the return to schooling is not the increase in schooling among workers but
rather the change in schooling for all members of young cohorts.
5
Mean educational attainment might not increase when the rich get richer, and even
if it does, the increase might not be efficient. If the rich “overinvest” in schooling when
they get richer and the poor “underinvest,” the mean level of educational attainment
might stay the same, but the efficiency of the investment would decline. In this article,
I assume that no one overinvests in schooling.
3
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American Journal of Sociology
Relative Deprivation and Gratification
Social comparison theory assumes that individuals evaluate themselves
relative to others. Relative deprivation theory holds that people compare
themselves to others who are more advantaged than themselves (Merton
and Kitt 1950; Davis 1959; Runciman 1966; Williams 1975).6 Imagine two
families with the same income. Family A lives in a wealthy area, while
family B lives in a poor area. Assuming their choice of where to live is
entirely exogenous and that other families in the same area are their only
reference group, relative deprivation theory predicts that members of
family A will feel more deprived than members of family B. Feelings of
relative deprivation can lead to isolation and alienation from the norms
and values of the majority. If children feel relatively deprived, they may
be less inclined to study or stay in school. Relative deprivation can also
make parents feel stressed and alienated, lowering their expectations for
their children or reducing the quality of their parenting (McLoyd 1990).
Relative deprivation theories assume that children or parents compare
themselves to others who are better off, while largely ignoring those who
are worse off. If parents all compare themselves to the richest people in
society, for example, they will feel poorer whenever the rich get richer.
Of course, people also compare themselves to others who are worse off.
Sociologists refer to this as “relative gratification” (Davis 1959). If either
children or their parents mostly compare themselves to the poorest people
in society rather than to the richest, increases in inequality will make
most people feel richer because the distance between them and the people
at the bottom of the distribution will grow. If people mostly compare
themselves to some real or imagined national average, increases in inequality will make the rich feel richer and the poor feel poorer. How this
will affect either educational attainment or other outcomes is
unpredictable.
Relative deprivation usually cannot be directly observed, so it is often
inferred from its behavioral manifestations. A large social-psychological
research literature uses experimental evidence to document the importance of interpersonal comparisons, in general, and relative deprivation,
6
An important distinction is between individual relative deprivation, in which an
individual compares his or her personal situation to the situation of other individuals,
and group relative deprivation, in which a person compares his or her relevant group’s
situation with the situation of another group. Growing inequality can affect both sorts
of relative deprivation, but I mainly emphasize individual comparisons, not group
comparisons. Individual comparisons are more likely to lead to isolation and stress,
while group comparisons are more likely to lead to collective action (Gurr 1970; Smith,
Spears, and Hamstra 1999).
4
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Educational Attainment
in particular.7 Most of the sociological research on the importance of
interpersonal comparisons to educational outcomes has been done in the
context of neighborhood and school effects. In one of the earliest of such
efforts, Davis (1966) argued that reference groups have both a comparison
function and a normative function (as “sources and reinforcers of standards”). Although the latter could make living in an affluent area an
advantage for low-income children, the former could make it a disadvantage because it fosters academic competition and relative deprivation.
Davis showed that the more academically selective a college was, the
lower any given student could expect his grades to be. As a result, students
who chose selective colleges were less likely to choose careers that required
graduate training. Other studies find that attending high school with highachieving classmates reduces educational attainment, while attending
school with high-SES classmates increases it. Because SES and achievement are correlated, attending a high-SES school has little net effect on
educational attainment. (See Jencks and Mayer [1990] for a review of
these studies.) These studies do not prove that children feel relatively
deprived when they must compete with higher achieving students, but
they demonstrate that more advantaged classmates or neighbors can be
both an advantage and a disadvantage. When a child’s own family income
stays the same but inequality increases, the child will be exposed both to
more advantaged and more disadvantaged children. This could have either positive or negative effects on the child’s educational attainment.
Changes in Political Behavior
Changes in inequality can affect political behavior. Some research suggests
that increases in economic inequality may decrease voters’ willingness to
support redistributive policies at the national level (Perotti 1996; Alesina
and Rodrik 1994). This could also happen at the state or local level. For
example, high levels of inequality could encourage the rich to enroll their
children in private schools, making them less interested in supporting
public schools. But high levels of inequality could also increase voters’
willingness to support redistributive policies if they fear political instability (Piven and Cloward 1993) or think that poverty contributes to
crime.8 Other research suggests that redistributive spending reduces economic inequality at the national level (Gustafsson and Johansson 1999).
7
For compilations of recent research and summaries of older research see Ellemers,
Spears, and Doosje (1997) and Suls (1991).
8
Relative deprivation is an important explanation for the relationship between crime
and economic inequality (Nettler 1984; Messner and Tardiff 1986; Rosenfeld 1986) and
for collective action more generally (Gurr 1970).
5
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American Journal of Sociology
Redistributive policies can thus be both a cause and an effect of economic
inequality. Disentangling cause from effect using cross-national data (as
these studies do) is difficult, because samples are generally very small, lag
structures are uncertain, and exogenous shocks that constitute national
experiments are rare. Still it is clear that changes in economic inequality
can in principle affect political support for redistributive policies, which
can thereby affect spending on schools.9
Nationwide, per pupil expenditures for elementary and secondary
schooling have increased since 1970, and spending has become more equal
across school districts in many states (Murray, Evans, and Schwab 1998;
Card and Payne 1998). Research on the effect of per pupil school expenditures on children’s school performance is equivocal (Elliott 1998; Hanushek 1996; Hedges, Laine, and Greenwald 1992), but most evidence
suggests that higher expenditures improve children’s test scores by at least
a little, which could in turn increase their educational attainment.
Research also shows that higher college tuition reduces enrollment and
graduation. (Kane [1999] summarizes this research.) Although real tuition
rates at state four-year colleges and universities have increased since 1980,
so has both state and federal financial aid for college students (U.S. Department of Education 1998). The number of two-year community colleges, which have low tuition, has also increased. However, the extent to
which state differences in economic inequality affect the cost of attending
a public college in the state is unknown.
Economic Segregation
The effect of economic inequality depends to some extent on the geographical proximity of the rich to the poor. This assumption is built into
conventional measures of inequality, which describe the dispersion of income among all households in some geographic area, such as a nation,
state, or neighborhood. Durlauf (1996) argues that as inequality increases,
the rich and poor have less in common and therefore segregate more
geographically. According to this argument, the degree of economic in-
9
Given a progressive tax rate, anything that makes the rich richer would increase the
revenue available to pay for schools. Over the long run, voters can decide to change
the progressivity of taxes. On average, state and local taxes are slightly progressive.
For example, in 30 large cities in 30 different states in 1995, a family of four with an
income of $25,000 paid an average of 8.2% of their income in state and local taxes,
while a family of the same size with an income of $75,000 paid on average 9.6% of
their income in taxes (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1998). Some economists assume that
less redistributive tax policies lead to more economic growth and hence that inequality
(within broad limits) is associated with economic growth. Greater economic growth
could lead to greater tax revenues, even if the tax rate declines.
6
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Educational Attainment
equality at, say, the city level may affect the degree of economic segregation within the city. This will in turn affect the degree of economic
inequality within neighborhoods. Wilson (1987) argues that economic segregation causes economic inequality, rather than the other way around.
This happens because economic and racial segregation reduce the quality
of inner-city schools and other institutions and leads to a spatial mismatch
between jobs and low-skilled workers. Both Durlauf and Wilson argue
that economic segregation hurts children’s life chances.
A pernicious potential consequence of economic inequality is to recreate
economic inequality in the next generation. This could happen if inequality benefits advantaged children and hurts disadvantaged children.
For example, if economic inequality is associated with increased economic
segregation, this could hurt low-income children’s educational attainment
while increasing high-income children’s educational attainment. Because
educational attainment is associated with future earnings, this could exacerbate inequality in the next generation.
The remainder of this article assesses these possibilities empirically. I
first estimate the effect of economic inequality on children’s educational
attainment. Second, I test the hypothesis that the effect of inequality is
different for rich and poor children. Third, I assess how much of the effect
of inequality is due to the increase in returns to schooling. Fourth, I assess
how much of the effect of inequality is due to the nonlinear relationship
between parental income and children’s educational attainment. Finally,
I test the hypotheses that the effects of inequality are the result of changes
in (1) the level of economic segregation in states, (2) state per pupil expenditures on primary and secondary schooling, and (3) the cost of attending college at state institutions. Both economic segregation and the
political behavior that affects school resources can be behavioral manifestations of either relative deprivation or relative gratification. Because
it is impossible in my data to measure feelings of relative deprivation or
gratification directly, it is impossible to completely isolate their effects.
DATA AND METHODS
Most research on the social consequences of economic inequality estimates
a model in which inequality in a geographic area, such as a nation or
state, predicts an aggregate-level outcome, such as the mortality rate or
the crime rate for the geographic area. Most research on educational
attainment, in contrast, uses individual-level data to predict years of
schooling from measures of family background and characteristics of the
labor market. Some research combines individual-level data with aggregate data to predict, say, the effect of neighborhood social composition
7
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American Journal of Sociology
on children’s educational attainment, holding constant their family background. These models of “neighborhood effects” or “school effects” have
many well-known estimation problems (Tienda 1991; Manski 1993; Jencks
and Mayer 1990). Nonetheless, such models do solve some of the problems
associated with using exclusively aggregate data. In this article, I estimate
models similar to those used to estimate neighborhood effects. I estimate
the effect of state-level inequality on individual children’s educational
attainment, often holding the children’s family characteristics constant.
Level of Aggregation
Economic inequality may have different effects at different levels of aggregation. Theory provides little guidance as to which geographic unit is
most relevant for the relationship between inequality and educational
attainment. If school financing plays a crucial role in educational attainment, the relevant units of aggregation are the political jurisdictions that
fund public schools and universities. Nationwide, states and local school
districts typically provide roughly equal amounts of money for elementary
and secondary schooling, with relatively little money coming from the
federal government. State funds tend to equalize district funding, so the
state pays a greater share for poor districts and a smaller share for rich
districts (Murray et al. 1998). It follows that decisions about the degree
of inequality in school district funding are primarily made at the state
level. If household income inequality affects educational outcomes primarily by affecting taxpayers’ inclination to fund public education, the
state may be the right level of aggregation.
On the other hand, school districts also share in funding decisions and
make significant decisions about policies that affect educational outcomes.
Income inequality within school districts might affect both voters’ inclination to pay taxes for schools and other school policies. However, parents
often choose their school district partly on the basis of who lives there.
If the same parental characteristics that cause parents to choose one district over another also affect their children’s educational outcomes, and
if these parental characteristics are not measured accurately, the estimated
effect of school district inequality on educational attainment could be
biased. This form of selection bias should be less important for estimating
the effect of state-level characteristics on educational attainment because
parents are less likely to move to a different state than to move to a
different school district in order to improve their children’s educational
prospects.
Theories about the effect of income inequality that involve interpersonal
comparisons are ambiguous about what is the most relevant geographic
unit because it is not clear how individuals select the people to whom
8
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Educational Attainment
they compare themselves. If children compare themselves to the people
they see on television, the nation as a whole is probably the relevant
comparison group. If the nation is the relevant comparison group, the
only way to study the impact of inequality would be to make crossnational comparisons or comparisons across time. If children compare
themselves mainly to their neighbors and classmates, inequality in a relatively small geographic area, such as a neighborhood or school attendance area, may be more relevant than inequality in a larger unit. But,
as I have noted, selection problems are likely to be more serious at the
level of the neighborhood or school district. In this article, I use states as
aggregation units. States may not be the only or even most salient unit
of aggregation, but there are sound theoretical reasons to expect states to
be important. As we will see, they are empirically important.
Data
The educational attainment of a state’s residents affects inequality, and
vice versa. This is not likely to be a problem in the short run for high
school graduation because while economic inequality in a state can affect
the probability that a teenager will graduate from high school, it takes
some time for the high school graduation rate to affect the dispersion of
household incomes in the state. Using economic inequality in a state to
predict the educational attainment of the adults in the state would pose
a more serious problem because the direction of causality is unclear. This
problem is exacerbated by the fact that many adults no longer live in the
state where they were raised, and the distribution of income in a state
may affect the kinds of migrants who settle there.
To solve these problems, I use data from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics (PSID) to estimate the effect of state economic inequality measured during adolescence on children’s eventual educational attainment.
I estimate separate models for a child’s chances of completing high school,
entering college, completing four years of college, and for years of completed schooling, because income inequality is likely to have different
effects on enrollment choices at different ages and at different levels of
schooling. My PSID sample includes all respondents who were in the data
set when they were 12–14 years old and when the educational outcome
of interest was measured. I count respondents as having graduated high
school if they reported that they had completed 12 or more years of
schooling when they were 20 years old. The analysis of high school graduation therefore includes all respondents who were in the sample at ages
12–14 and at age 20 (N p 3,504). I count respondents as having attended
college if they reported completing one or more years of college by the
time they were 23 years old. I count them as having graduated college if
9
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American Journal of Sociology
they report having completed at least 16 years of schooling by the time
they were 23 years old. For these outcomes, therefore, respondents had
to be in the PSID sample when they were ages 12–14 and at age 23
(N p 3,240).10
Most of my measures of state characteristics come from the 1970 1%
Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) of census data and from the 1980
and 1990 5% PUMS. Values for a few other state characteristics come
from published sources, as described in the appendix. The appendix also
provides more detail on the sample and the variables used in this article.
The Measure of Inequality
I use the Gini coefficient as a measure of inequality mainly because of its
familiarity.11 The correlation between a state’s Gini coefficient and two
other commonly used measures of economic inequality (the standard deviation of log income and the ratio of the ninetieth to the tenth percentile)
are very high (0.925 and 0.963). The correlation between inequality in the
top half of a state’s income distribution (the 90 to 50 ratio) and inequality
in the bottom half of its distribution (its 50 to 10 ratio) is also high (0.721).
The correlation between each of these alternative measures of state income
inequality with individual’s educational attainment is negative but small
(none differs from zero by more than 0.061). Thus it is not clear that any
one measure of economic inequality is likely to be better than another at
predicting educational attainment.
I use census data to calculate the Gini coefficient for each state in 1970,
1980, and 1990. I then use linear interpolation to create a Gini coefficient
10
I measure high school graduation two years after students’ normal date of graduation
and college enrollment up to five years after the normal enrollment age. However, I
measure college graduation only about a year after the normal college graduation date.
If inequality affects the timing of school transitions, these different “grace” periods
could be a problem. For example, if rising inequality delays but does not reduce college
graduation, my estimates would be upwardly biased estimates of the effect of inequality
on college completion. Because I require children to be in the sample from adolescence
on, increasing the age at which I measure educational outcomes reduces the sample
size considerably. However, I did experiment with measuring college completion and
educational attainment at age 25 (three years after the normal age of college graduation), and the point estimates were similar to those in the models reported here.
11
The Gini coefficient is the proportion of the total area below the 45 degree line that
lies above the Lorenz curve, which plots the cumulative percentage of households
against the cumulative percentage of income received by them. See Firebaugh (1999)
for a comparison of inequality measures across countries. See Atkinson (1970, 1983)
for a discussion of statistical differences among inequality measures.
10
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Educational Attainment
for each state in each intercensus year for which I have PSID data.12 I
assign children the level of inequality in their state when they were 14
years old. The national Gini coefficient increased from 0.361 in 1970 to
0.368 in 1980 then to 0.381 in 1990. The Gini coefficient also varies across
states. In 1970, the lowest state Gini coefficient was 0.320, and the highest
was 0.427. In 1990, the lowest was 0.337, and the highest was 0.438. The
standard deviation of the Gini coefficient across states was 0.027 in 1970,
0.018 in 1980, and 0.022 in 1990.
RESULTS
The Effect of Inequality on Mean Educational Attainment
If the degree of economic inequality in a state were a random accident,
we could compare educational attainment in states with high and low
levels of inequality, assume that all else was more or less equal across
states, and treat observed differences in educational outcomes as a byproduct of economic inequality. The effect of inequality (Gini) in state s
and year t on the educational attainment (E) of individual i would then
be given by the value of bg in the following model:
Eist p b0 ⫹ bgGinist14 ⫹ e ist ,
(1)
where e ist is the usual random error term and t14 indicates that it is
measured at age 14.
Model 1 of table 1 shows the results of equation (1) for all four outcomes.
In all models in table 1, the t-statistics are corrected for the fact that
individuals are clustered in states and years. For high school graduation,
enrolling in college, and graduating college, the results are from a probit
model. The cell entries are partial derivatives evaluated at the mean of
the distribution. The results for years of schooling are estimated with an
OLS model. Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients. Using
model 1 for the entire sample, the effect of the Gini coefficient is negative
for all outcomes, but it is not statistically significant at the 0.05 level for
any outcome.
States vary in many ways besides their level of economic inequality.
Some of these differences are associated with both economic inequality
and with educational attainment. In this article, I try to estimate what
would happen to educational attainment as a result of an exogenous
12
Nationwide inequality increased somewhat more rapidly in the later part of the
1970s than in the earlier part of the decade. During the early 1980s, the increase in
inequality was nearly linear. Any deviation from the linear trend is a source of measurement error in the inequality measure, and thus it probably biases the coefficient
of the Gini coefficient toward zero.
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American Journal of Sociology
TABLE 1
Effect of Gini Coefficient on Education Outcomes
Model and Outcome
Model 1, no controls:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Model 2, controls region and year dummies, %black,
%Hispanic, mean income, and unemployment rate:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Model 3, adds returns to schooling:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Full
Sample
High
Income
Low
Income
⫺.619
(⫺1.480)
⫺.347
(⫺.560)
⫺.559
(⫺1.130)
⫺4.579
(⫺1.668)
.118
(.220)
2.252
(2.560)
.881
(1.180)
6.128
(1.579)
.680
(.970)
⫺.226
(⫺.330)
⫺.424
(⫺1.060)
⫺2.994
(⫺.974)
.222
(.270)
3.404
(2.900)
1.024
(1.150)
10.565
(2.160)
.908
(.940)
4.763
(2.930)
2.715
(2.010)
19.769
(2.978)
⫺1.417
(⫺.990)
⫺.190
(⫺.150)
⫺1.639
(⫺2.320)
⫺8.750
(⫺1.386)
.070
(.090)
2.892
(2.440)
.711
(.770)
8.637
(1.760)
.885
(.910)
4.090
(2.460)
2.346
(1.660)
18.604
(2.739)
⫺1.564
(⫺1.100)
⫺.213
(⫺.160)
⫺1.734
(⫺2.330)
⫺9.586
(⫺1.518)
Note.—t-statistics are in parentheses and are corrected for clustering in states and years.
change in economic inequality. An exogenous increase in inequality might
result from polarization of the job distribution due to industrial restructuring or from a technological innovation that changed the skill needs of
employers and therefore changed the wage premium for some skills. In
response to such changes, states might differ in how much inequality
increased depending on the skill distribution in the state, the available
mechanisms for increasing high-premium skills, the generosity of the
state’s social programs, the “culture” of the state, and many other factors.
To estimate the effect of an exogenous change in inequality, one must
control all the exogenous determinants of inequality that also affect educational attainment.
To control potentially relevant omitted variables, I first include dummy
12
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Educational Attainment
variables for the Northeast, South, and Midwest to control characteristics
of the region that remain unchanged over the period of observation. An
alternative strategy would be to control state fixed effects. Such a model
would be equivalent to estimating the within-state effect of a change in
inequality. This strategy has the advantage of controlling all invariant
characteristics of states. However, it has three important disadvantages.
First, it can magnify measurement error in independent variables, including the measure of inequality, which would downwardly bias the
estimated effects. Second, if the lag structure of the model is not correctly
specified, this too can result in downwardly biased estimates of inequality.
Third, including state fixed effects greatly reduces the degrees of freedom
available to estimate the model, which in turn increases the standard
errors of the estimates. Nonetheless, I test the sensitivity of my model to
inclusion of state rather than region fixed effects and report those results
below.
I control year fixed effects to account for the secular national trend in
educational attainment. With both region and year fixed effects, all variation in inequality derives from a combination of changes in inequality
within states over time and differences in equality among states in the
same region.
I also control a set of exogenous state-level determinants of inequality
that can change over time. Past and present racial and ethnic discrimination means that racial and ethnic diversity can affect economic inequality and educational attainment. I control the percentage of state
residents who were African-American and the percentage who were Hispanic in the year a child was 14 years old.13
A state’s average household income is negatively correlated with economic inequality, and mean household income could obviously affect children’s educational attainment. The correlation between mean household
income and the state Gini coefficient was ⫺0.724 in 1970, ⫺0.425 in 1980,
and ⫺0.559 in 1990.14
13
In principle, inequality could affect the racial composition of the state, and vice
versa. But in practice, inequality cannot have much effect on a state’s racial composition, because the interyear correlation for both percentage black and percentage
Hispanic are about 0.98.
14
The negative correlation could reflect a negative effect of inequality on mean income
rather than the other way around. However, empirical research on the relationship
between economic inequality and economic growth at the national level is inconclusive.
(See Forbes [2000] for a recent review of this evidence.) In addition, it is not clear that
the (unknown) factors that generate a correlation between inequality and subsequent
economic growth at the national level would also apply to the economies of U.S. states.
Because inequality and mean income are highly correlated, and because it seems likely
that state income levels affect inequality more than vice versa in the United States, I
control state mean income.
13
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I also control the state unemployment rate measured at the same time
as inequality is measured. Fluctuations in the unemployment rate are
mainly attributable to short-term fluctuations in the business cycle and
do not contribute much to the level of inequality in the state. The correlation between the state unemployment rate and the Gini coefficient is
only ⫺0.047. However, among states with the same mean income, those
with high levels of unemployment are likely to have more inequality
because unemployment reduces the income of some state residents. Research is inconclusive about the effect of local unemployment rates on
educational attainment (Betts and McFarland 1995; Kane 1994; Manski
and Wise 1983; Grubb 1988).
With fixed effects and control variables, the model becomes

Eist p b0 ⫹ bgGinist14 ⫹ bx Xst14
⫹ gr ⫹ gt ⫹ e ist ,
where gr is a set of dummies for the regions and gt is a set of dummies
for the year in which inequality is measured. In this model, X represents
exogenous state characteristics that may have changed over time, including racial composition, the unemployment rate, and mean income.
The results from this model are shown in model 2 in the first column
of table 1. With these controls, the effect of the Gini coefficient is positive
for all outcomes and statistically significant at the 0.05 level for enrolling
in college and years of schooling.
I next try to separate the effect of the incentive provided by greater
returns to schooling from other effects of inequality. Imagine two states
where inequality grows by the same amount and mean income does not
change. In state A, inequality within education groups increases, perhaps
because employers increase the pay of workers with noncognitive skills
not usually learned in school. In state B, inequality grows because the
returns to schooling increase. In both states, the rich, on average, get
richer and the poor, on average, get poorer. If the effect of inequality on
educational attainment were entirely due to the incentive effect of increased returns to schooling, educational attainment would increase in
state B but not in state A.
My measure of returns to schooling is the average effect of an extra
year of schooling on log wages in a given state and year, estimated for
workers ages 18–65. I estimate the effect of state returns to schooling (Rst)
when a child was 14 years old on his or her eventual educational attainment. I use returns when a child was age 14 rather than returns at a later
age for two reasons. First, the decision about how much schooling to get
is intertwined with decisions about what to study: a student who does
not expect to attend college often makes decisions about what to study
in high school that, in turn, make college attendance very difficult. Second,
I assume that the rate of return to schooling often affects individual
14
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Educational Attainment
enrollment decisions indirectly, by affecting the way “significant others”
value education. These indirect influences are likely to mean that current
attitudes reflect past as well as current returns. Thus the model becomes

Eist p b0 ⫹ bgGinist14 ⫹ br Rst14 ⫹ bx Xst14
⫹ gr ⫹ gt ⫹ e ist.
The results for this model are shown in model 3 in the first column of
table 1. States with high returns to schooling also have higher levels of
inequality, so the effect of the Gini coefficient in these models is smaller
than in models that omit returns to schooling. These results suggest that
a one standard deviation increase in a state’s Gini coefficient (i.e., a change
of 0.02) increases children’s chances of enrolling in college by 0.058 (13.4%
of the mean) and increases their overall educational attainment by 0.173
years. These results suggest that the positive effect of inequality on educational outcomes is only partly due to the incentive provided by the
rising returns to schooling. If the return to schooling were an entirely
exogenous cause of the increase in inequality, this model would provide
the best estimate of the effect of inequality on educational attainment.15
The Effect of Inequality on Rich and Poor Children
The last two columns in table 1 show the results of these three models
separately for high- and low-income children. “High-income” children are
those in the top half of the income distribution. “Low-income” children
are those in the bottom half of the income distribution. Dividing the
sample at the midpoint allows all variables to interact with household
income in a way that is easy to interpret and preserves enough high- and
low-income cases for a meaningful analysis. Other divisions of the sample,
such as quartiles, provide qualitatively similar results but with larger
standard errors. A model that interacts household income with the Gini
coefficient and all other relevant variables is difficult to interpret and also
results in very large standard errors. Dividing the sample in half is instructive even though it may not capture all the nuances of the effect of
inequality at different parts of the income distribution.
Columns 2 and 3 for model 3 in table 1 show that living in a highinequality state improves all educational outcomes for high-income children and hurts all educational outcomes for low-income children. The
15
It is possible that schooling opportunities in a state affect the returns to schooling.
Absent migration, states with less postsecondary schooling opportunities will have a
lower supply of highly educated workers, raising the wage premium and creating more
inequality. This would also presumably increase the incentive to go to college. Over
time, states would then reach an equilibrium in which they provided the “right” supply
of college graduates to meet the state’s demand for college graduates. If this happens,
there would be little variation across states in returns to schooling.
15
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positive effects of the Gini coefficient on college enrollment and years of
schooling are statistically significant at the 0.05 level for high-income
children. Only the negative effect of inequality on graduating college is
statistically significant at this level for low-income children. Thus the
overall positive effect of the Gini coefficient on enrolling in college and
on years of schooling in column 1 is entirely due to the positive effect for
high-income children. Inequality has no overall effect on college entrance
because the positive effect of inequality for high-income children is offset
by the negative effect for low-income children.
The Processes through which Inequality Affects Educational
Attainment
I first separate the effect of inequality on educational attainment that is
due to the nonlinearity of families’ own income from the other effects of
inequality. These estimates answer the question, How would children’s
educational attainment differ if their families had the same income (averaged over several years) and they lived in states with the same mean
income and returns to schooling, but different levels of economic
inequality?
To estimate the importance of the declining utility of family income,
we first must determine the approximate functional form of the relationship between parental income and children’s educational attainment. Table 2 shows that any of three nonlinear functions of household income
averaged over three years is a better predictor of educational outcomes
than a linear model in which an extra dollar always has the same effect,
regardless of a family’s initial income. But the differences among the three
nonlinear forms are relatively small. Thus while the effect of family income is probably nonlinear, these data do not allow one to choose among
the nonlinear specifications. I use log income as a measure of nonlinearity
because of its theoretical appeal and ease of interpretation. To determine
how much of the effect of inequality on educational attainment is due to
the nonlinear relationship between family income and children’s educational attainment, I estimate the following equation:

Eist p b0 ⫹ bY lnYist12⫺14 ⫹ bgGinist14 ⫹ bx Xst14
⫹ gr ⫹ gt ⫹ e ist.
In this equation, bY captures the effect of family income when children
were 12–14 years old, while bg captures the effects of inequality that
operate independently of a household’s own income.
Comparing model 4 in table 3 with model 3 in table 1 for all children
shows that controlling log household income decreases the positive effect
of the Gini coefficient on all outcomes. But the reductions are modest,
and the remaining effects of the Gini coefficient are still positive. Con16
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Educational Attainment
TABLE 2
Effect of Selected Functional Forms of Household Income on Measures of
Educational Attainment
Dependent Variable
Linear
Logarithm
Cube Root
Logarithm Plus
Extreme Deciles
High school graduate (x2) . . .
Entered college (x2) . . . . . . . . . .
College graduate (x2) . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (R2) . . . . . .
174.52
386.94
252.06
.127
214.69
401.35
273.21
.129
218.26
417.50
278.61
.136
219.28
425.81
290.99
.137
Source.—PSID data described in the appendix.
Note.—The model with “logarithm plus extreme deciles” predicts educational attainment from log
household income, a variable equal to one if the child was in the richest income decile and another
variable equal to one if the child was in the poorest income decile.
trolling parental income reduces the effect of the Gini coefficient on the
educational outcomes of both high- and low-income children. But most
of the positive effect of inequality on high-income children and most of
the negative effect of inequality on low-income children does not operate
through the effect of families’ own income.
Most models of neighborhood or school effects begin with an individuallevel model of an outcome such as high school graduation then add an
aggregate-level variable for the neighborhood or school social composition. For example, such a model might predict high school graduation
from family background characteristics such as parental education and
income and a school or neighborhood-level variable such as mean family
income (Crane 1991; Evans, Oates, and Schwab 1992; Mayer 1991). In
such models, family background variables are intended to control for the
fact that parents select the schools their children attend and the neighborhoods in which they live. To see if parental selection across states with
different levels of inequality is a problem, I control two other measures
of family background, namely, whether the child is black and parental
education. Model 5 in table 3 shows that for the whole sample controlling
these variables somewhat reduces the effect of the Gini coefficient on the
measures of educational attainment. With these background measures
controlled, omitted family background variables are less likely to be a
source of bias, since other family background characteristics that affect
state of residence are likely to be correlated with parents’ race and
education.
The results in model 5 in table 3 suggest that increasing the Gini coefficient by 0.02 would increase college enrollment by 0.047 or about 10%
of the mean through processes unrelated to children’s own income. This
increase accrues entirely to high-income children. A 0.02 increase in the
Gini coefficient would increase schooling by 0.322 years for high-income
17
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TABLE 3
The Effect of the Gini Coefficient in Models Separating the Effect of
Parents’ Income from Other Effects of Inequality
Model and Controls
Model 4, controls variables in model 3 plus log household income:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Model 5, adds child’s race, parents’ education:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Full
Sample
High
Income
Low
Income
.051
(.060)
2.636
(2.170)
.213
(.240)
7.157
(1.572)
.600
(.640)
3.560
(2.170)
1.998
(1.420)
17.057
(2.712)
⫺1.372
(⫺.940)
⫺.028
(⫺.020)
⫺1.513
(⫺2.190)
⫺7.970
(⫺1.275)
⫺.281
(⫺.350)
2.344
(1.850)
.077
(.080)
5.435
(1.184)
.292
(.320)
3.150
(1.890)
1.957
(1.340)
16.124
(2.499)
⫺1.816
(⫺1.200)
⫺.243
(⫺.180)
⫺1.586
(⫺2.170)
⫺10.161
(⫺1.617)
Note.—t-statistics are in parentheses and are corrected for clustering in states and years.
children and decrease schooling by 0.203 years for low-income children
through processes unrelated to family income.
Next I test the hypothesis that economic segregation between school
districts accounts for the effect of economic inequality. If we divide a state
into mutually exclusive geographic areas such as school districts, we can
decompose the total variance of household income for the state (jts2 ) into
two additive components: a between-area component (jbs2 ) and a within2
area component (jws
). This yields the identity
2
jts2 p jbs2 ⫹ jws
.
The ratio of the between-area variance to the total variance (jbs2 /jts2 ) is
a measure of economic segregation (Jargowsky 1996). In the absence of
economic segregation, all areas have the same mean income and
jbs2 /jts2 p 0. With complete economic segregation, there is no income var18
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Educational Attainment
iation within geographic areas and jbs2 /jts2 p 1.16 Thus my measure of
economic segregation is the percentage of a state’s total income variance
that is between school districts in the state.17
Comparing model 6 in table 4 to model 5 in table 3 shows that controlling economic segregation hardly changes the effect of the Gini coefficient on any measure of schooling. This is because, contrary to what
one might have expected, economic segregation between school districts
has a small and statistically insignificant (at 0.05) effect on all these measures of educational attainment, so controlling it does not appreciably
alter the effect of the Gini coefficient. (See tables A2–A4 in the appendix.)
To see if the effect of inequality operates through state support for
schooling, I estimate a model that controls state per pupil expenditures
on primary and secondary schooling, college tuition at the state’s flagship
institution, and the amount of grant money available for college tuition
per state resident ages 15–24 years old.
Model 7 in table 4 shows that, for the whole sample, controlling these
variables reduces the positive effect of inequality on enrolling in college
to close to zero. It leaves a negative, statistically significant residual effect
of inequality on graduating college and a negative but statistically insignificant effect on years of schooling. Controlling these variables reduces
the positive effect of inequality on high-income children’s educational
attainment and increases its negative effect on low-income children’s educational attainment. Greater state spending on schooling is associated
with higher college enrollment and graduation, and states with more inequality spend more on schooling, thus reducing potential negative effects
of inequality.
The full regression results from this model are shown in tables A2–A4
in the appendix. High tuition reduces a child’s chances of enrolling in
and graduating from college. Thus it also reduces years of schooling. This
16
There are many other possible measures of economic segregation (White 1987; James
1986). The most commonly used measures are the “exposure index,” which gives the
average probability that members of one group live in the same neighborhood as
members of another group, and the “index of dissimilarity,” which gives the percentage
of residents with a particular characteristic who would have to move for the group
to be equally represented in all neighborhoods. These measures were developed to
estimate racial segregation, so they require classifying people into discrete categories.
Some research has measured economic segregation with such measures (Massey and
Eggers 1990), but because income is continuous, by breaking income into discrete
categories, this approach throws away potentially valuable information (Jargowsky
1996).
17
I have replicated these results using the variance of state income between census
tracts as the measure of segregation, and the results are very similar to the results
using school districts. I show the results using school districts because they are relevant
political jurisdictions for schooling outcomes.
19
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TABLE 4
The Effect of the Gini Coefficient in Models Controlling State
Education Variables
Model and Controls
Model 6, controls variables in model 5 plus economic
segregation:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Model 7, adds college tuition, grants for college tuition,
and per pupil expenditure for elementary and secondary schooling:
High school graduate (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . .
Enrolled in college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . .
Graduated college (probit partial derivative) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Years of schooling (OLS unstandardized coefficient) . . .
Full
Sample
High
Income
Low
Income
⫺.450
(⫺.500)
2.504
(1.810)
.063
(.060)
5.465
(1.114)
⫺.104
(⫺.110)
3.323
(1.820)
1.852
(1.190)
12.378
(1.847)
⫺1.394
(⫺.820)
⫺.327
(⫺.210)
⫺1.474
(⫺1.730)
⫺8.216
(⫺1.185)
⫺.375
(⫺.430)
.193
(.130)
⫺2.404
(⫺1.920)
⫺2.709
(⫺.483)
⫺.247
(⫺.260)
.908
(.420)
⫺1.049
(⫺.540)
3.545
(.420)
⫺1.145
(⫺.750)
⫺1.876
(⫺1.260)
⫺2.156
(⫺3.150)
⫺14.395
(⫺2.110)
Note.—t-statistics are in parentheses and are corrected for clustering in states and years.
is the case whether the child comes from a high- or low-income family.
On the other hand, more state grant money for college increases college
graduation but has a small and statistically insignificant effect on enrolling
in college and on years of schooling. This is because grants for tuition
increase college attendance for high- but not low-income students. This
is consistent with other evidence on the effect of the costs of attending
college (Kane 1999). Per pupil spending on elementary and secondary
schooling increases college completion. It also increases college attendance
for low-income but not high-income children.
Sensitivity Analysis
To see if these results are robust to alternative models, I first substituted
state dummy variables for region dummy variables. Second, I estimated
a two-stage least-squares model that instruments the Gini coefficient. This
model is intended to control unobserved heterogeneity in state charac20
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Educational Attainment
teristics that could bias the estimated effect of the Gini coefficient. In the
interest of brevity, I report only the estimates for years of schooling.
When I substitute state fixed effects in model 3 for the whole sample,
the Gini coefficient on years of schooling is 12.646, which is similar to
the 8.637 shown in table 1, but the t-statistic for the state fixed-effects
model is only 0.761. Similarly, for children above the median income, the
coefficient for the Gini coefficient is 23.809 (t p 1.099 ), and for children
below the median income, it is ⫺4.074 (t p ⫺0.066). Again, the point
estimates are similar to the estimates from models with region dummy
variables, but the t-statistics are very small. In all cases, estimates from
the region fixed-effects model were within the 95% confidence interval of
the state fixed-effects estimates.
Economic inequality has increased partly because rising returns to skill
have increased wages more in some industries than in others. I use this
fact to create an instrument for predicting changes in economic inequality
that are arguably determined by national economic forces and thus exogenous with respect to other changes at the state level. The reasoning
for the instrument is that if a technological “shock” raised wages in some
industries and not others, and if the state’s industrial mix could not respond quickly, the industrial mix when the shock occurred should produce
a state-level change in inequality over the short to medium run when all
else is equal. The industrial mix at the time of the shock would presumably
affect educational attainment at that time, but it would affect subsequent
changes in educational attainment only through its effect on inequality,
including its effect on returns to schooling. The appendix describes my
measure of industrial mix.
When I re-estimate model 3 for the whole sample as a two-sided least
squares model with this instrument, the effect of the Gini coefficient on
years of schooling is 3.769, which is about half the OLS estimate. However,
the sampling error of this estimate is very large (11.28), so this test is
inconclusive.
CONCLUSIONS
My results suggest five conclusions. First, the growth in inequality since
1970 probably did not have much affect on high school graduation.
Second, the growth in inequality since 1970 increased overall years of
schooling mainly by increasing college entrance rates. Model 3 in table 3
suggests that a one standard deviation increase in the Gini coefficient
results in a 0.058 increase in a student’s probability of going to college
(13.4% of the mean) and an additional 0.173 years of schooling.
Third, the growth in income inequality contributed to an increase in
21
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American Journal of Sociology
inequality in educational attainment between rich and poor children. A
0.02 increase in the Gini coefficient is associated with a reduction of 0.192
years in low-income children’s schooling and an increase of 0.372 years
in high-income children’s schooling. This is not primarily because the
growth in inequality increased the income of rich but not poor children’s
families. The differential effect of inequality on high- and low-income
children persists even when their families’ incomes are controlled.
Fourth, the effect of inequality is only partly due to the nonlinear
relationship between parental income and children’s outcomes and the
incentive provided by increasing returns to schooling. Fifth, an increase
in per pupil expenditures at the elementary and secondary level and lower
college costs are positively associated with state inequality, and both raise
educational attainment. Greater inequality is also associated with greater
economic segregation, but this does not appear to affect children’s educational attainment.
The results in this article present a problem. Growing income inequality
raised mean educational attainment but also exacerbated disparities in
educational attainment between rich and poor children. This is likely to
contribute to economic inequality in the next generation. These findings
suggest that it is important to find ways to reduce the potentially harmful
effects of inequality on low-income children. The results in this article
suggest that higher spending on elementary and secondary schooling and
lower college tuition increase the educational attainment of low-income
children and by doing so reduce the gap in schooling between high- and
low-income children. But these efforts were not enough to prevent inequality from hurting low-income children’s educational attainment.
This article has at least three potential limitations that invite further
research. First, it focuses on inequality at the level of the state. Inequality
in smaller geographic areas could either be more or less important than
inequality at the state level (though the absence of an effect of segregation
makes this somewhat unlikely). Inequality at the national level may also
be more important than inequality in a state. Research that assesses the
importance of inequality at different levels of aggregation would be very
useful. Second, I may not have controlled all state characteristics that
contributed both to changes in inequality and in educational attainment.
This leaves the possibility that the estimates suffer from omitted variable
bias. Unfortunately, the number of state characteristics that can be included is severely limited by the number of states and the small number
of PSID families. A third closely related problem is that these estimates
probably do not include all the important processes through which economic inequality affects educational attainment. We need better theories
about the social consequences of economic inequality in general and about
its consequences for educational attainment in particular. Without strong
22
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Educational Attainment
theories, identifying the process through which inequality operates from
empirical data involves substantial risks of both type 1 and type 2 error.
Nonetheless, this article has demonstrated the importance of understanding the consequences of economic inequality for both advantaged and
disadvantaged children.
APPENDIX
Description of the Data and Variables
PSID Data
I use data from the 1993 wave of the PSID. The high school graduation
sample includes respondents ages 20–37 years old in 1993 who were not
missing data on any variable. The sample for college enrollment, college
graduation, and years of schooling includes respondents who were ages
23–37 years old in 1993 who were not missing data. Observations are
weighted to account for the PSID sample design.
PSID variables were constructed by pooling across the 26 currently
available waves of the PSID family file (years 1968–93). Variables are
assigned to respondents based on their age. For example, I average family
income when children were ages 12–14 years. Thus it was averaged over
1985–87 for children born in 1973 and over 1990–92 for children born in
1978. Following is a description of variables created with PSID data.
Their means, standard deviations, and correlation are in table A1.
High school graduate is a dummy variable equal to “1” if the individual
had either earned a GED or had 12 years of schooling by age 20, “0”
otherwise.
Enrolled in college is a dummy variable equal to “1” if the individual
had completed at least 13 years of schooling by age 23, “0” otherwise.
Completed college is a dummy variable equal to “1” if the individual
had completed at least 16 years of schooling by age 23, “0” otherwise.
Log family income is cash income averaged over the three years when
the child was age 12–14. Income values are in 1998 dollars using the CPIU-X1 price adjustment. I use the natural logarithm of the averaged value.
Parental education is the highest year of schooling completed by the
mother when the child was age 14. If this was missing, I use the mother’s
education when the child was age 13 and so on until age 11. If all of
these values were missing, then I assigned the father’s education when
the child was age 14.
Black is a dummy variable equal to “1” if the child was African-American, “0” otherwise.
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American Journal of Sociology
Census Data
Most of the state-level variables used in this analysis come from the 1970,
1980, and 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) of the U.S. Census.
In 1980 and 1990, I used the 5% samples. In 1970, I used the 1% sample
because that is what is available.
Mean household income was computed by summing the components
of income for each person in a household. Using components of person’s
income rather than person’s total income increases the detail available at
the upper tail of the distribution by avoiding Census Bureau top-coding
of total income. To reduce problems of comparability over time that arise
from changes in the Census Bureau’s top-codes for income components,
I created uniform income components and top-codes for all years. Variables are top-coded by reassigning values above the lowest ninety-ninth
percentile of positive values among the years to the median of all values
across years that lie above that lowest ninety-ninth percentile. The same
was done for negative values using the highest first percentile as the cutoff.
I sum the resulting components to get household income. All measures
of income are adjusted to 1998 dollars using the CPI-U-X1. I use this
income measure to calculate state-level measures of income and income
inequality. Persons in group quarters were excluded from all calculations.
Percentage black and percentage Hispanic are estimated using 1970,
1980, and 1990 PUMS data. I use linear interpolation to assign values
for the state in the year when the child was 14 years old.
Returns to schooling for individual i in state s and year y is estimated
for workers ages 18–65 using the following model:
lnWisy p b0 ⫹ bs Sis ⫹ e is ,
where W is the hourly wage and S is years of schooling. In this model,
bs is the percentage increase in wages due to an additional year of schooling. I experimented with 12 different measures of returns to schooling,
using different age groups and different functional forms, and estimating
separate models for men and women. I use the measure that increased
R2 the most when added to the model of the effect of inequality. This
measure also corresponds best to economic theory about the functional
form of returns to schooling and produces an estimated return to schooling
that is consistent with previous research (Winship and Korenman 1999;
Mayer and Knutson 1999; Ceci 1991).
Economic segregation is estimated by calculating the total variance of
household income for each state using the income measure described
above. I calculate mean income for each census tract in the state using
the STF4 and STF5 census files. I weight each tract mean by the population of the tract. The variance of the weighted means is the variance
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Educational Attainment
of household income between census tracts. To get the within-tract variance, I subtract the between-tract variance from the total variance of
household income in the state.
Industrial mix of states in 1970 is measured by assigning each worker
between the ages of 25 and 64 in a state the national mean earnings of
workers in the same three-digit industry. I then calculate the dispersion
of these means separately for each state, weighting each industry by the
percentage of the state’s workers in the industry. Thus for each state, I
calculate the national mean wage in 1970 of workers in individual i’s
industry. I then calculate a new variable that assigns each worker in 1970
the average 1980 wage for his or her industry. I repeat this using average
wages for 1990. I calculate the standard deviations of the 1970, 1980, and
1990 measures in each state. This measure, which I call “industrial mix,”
is the amount of interindustry income inequality we would expect to find
in the state if the industrial mix had not changed between 1970 and 1990.
The R2 when I regress the change in the Gini coefficient on the change
in industry mix is 0.365.
Other State-Level Variables
Elementary and secondary public school expenditures per capita is the
state’s total expenditure for elementary and secondary public schools divided by the state population of children ages 5–17 calculated for the year
when the individual was age 14. State population data for 5–17 year olds
are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s web page. Elementary and secondary
public school expenditures are from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical
Abstract of the United States annual volumes for 1970–90 (91st to 110th
eds.).
College tuition is the in-state tuition for the state’s flagship university.
The data are from the Higher Education General Information Survey
(U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, various years.)
Grants for college is the total price-adjusted need-based grant expenditures for a state divided by the number of state residents ages 15–24.
The data are from the Higher Education General Information Survey
(U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, various years.)
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TABLE A1
Correlations among Variables
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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1. High school graduate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.000
2. Enrolled in college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.022 1.000
3. Graduated college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.031
.547 1.000
4. Years of schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.041
.787
.731 1.000
5. Mean household income/$1,000 . . . .
.055
.101
.068
.106 1.000
6. %black in state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ⫺.044 ⫺.089 ⫺.056 ⫺.080 ⫺.320 1.000
7. %Hispanic in state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.085
.075
.042
.055
.342 ⫺.119 1.000
8. Child’s race is black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ⫺.114 ⫺.116 ⫺.137 ⫺.144 ⫺.124
.330 ⫺.005 1.000
9. State Gini coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ⫺.030 ⫺.013 ⫺.022 ⫺.039 ⫺.570
.170
.188
.156 1.000
10. State returns to schooling . . . . . . . . .
.030
.036
.030
.048 ⫺.003
.502
.334
.137
.447 1.000
11. Log household income . . . . . . . . . . . .
.256
.333
.269
.358
.286 ⫺.208
.120 ⫺.374 ⫺.184 ⫺.023 1.000
12. Parent’s education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.271
.347
.276
.364
.240 ⫺.213
.092 ⫺.229 ⫺.141
.060
.425 1.000
13. Expenditures on schools/$1,000 . . .
.064
.133
.103
.125
.706 ⫺.263
.217 ⫺.133 ⫺.118
.058
.182
.251 1.000
14. College tuition/$1,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.004 ⫺.032 ⫺.023 ⫺.010
.351 ⫺.091 ⫺.302 ⫺.068 ⫺.433 ⫺.046
.066
.042 .317 1.000
15. Grants for college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.024
.083
.112
.103
.255 ⫺.118
.302 ⫺.048
.044
.241
.118
.049 .410 .207 1.000
16. Segregation
.042
.084
.103
.102
.243 ⫺.018
.312 ⫺.017 ⫺.206
.186
.187
.114 .401 .363 .213 1.000
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.832
.427
.182 12.906 36.728 11.460 4.971
.155
.402
.062 10.759 11.431 2.934 1.914 .075 .070
SD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.374
.494
.386 2.121 4.526 7.744 6.170
.362
.018
.011
.657 2.661 .780 .772 .079 .033
Source.—See data description in the appendix.
Note.—Means and SDs are based on the 3,504 cases in the sample for models predicting high school graduation. The sample for college outcomes is 3,240 cases
so the means differ slightly.
TABLE A2
Predictors of School Outcomes for the Full Sample
Probit Partial Derivative
Variable
Gini coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State mean income/$1,000 . . . .
State %black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State %Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State unemployment rate . . . . .
Returns to schooling . . . . . . . . . .
Log parental income . . . . . . . . . .
Child is black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Parent’s years of schooling . . .
Segregation between school
districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Per pupil expenditures on
schools/$1,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
College tuition/$1,000 . . . . . . . . .
Grants for college tuition . . . . .
OLS Coefficient
High School
Graduate
Enrolled in
College
Graduated
College
Years of
Schooling
⫺.375
(⫺.430)
⫺.009
(1.600)
.003
(1.470)
⫺.002
(⫺.830)
⫺.005
(⫺1.770)
1.553
(.940)
.087
(6.230)
⫺.011
(⫺.490)
.025
(7.610)
.193
(.130)
⫺.012
(⫺1.360)
.004
(1.470)
⫺.005
(⫺1.310)
.000
(.060)
2.998
(1.040)
.208
(8.390)
.066
(1.640)
.056
(7.810)
⫺2.404
(⫺1.920)
⫺.015
(⫺2.300)
.002
(1.280)
⫺.001
(⫺.280)
⫺.003
(⫺.720)
1.954
(1.010)
.099
(5.920)
⫺.047
(⫺1.980)
.034
(7.260)
⫺2.709
(⫺.483)
⫺.045
(⫺1.473)
.021
(1.774)
⫺.014
(⫺1.023)
⫺.012
(⫺.614)
9.973
(.866)
.771
(10.392)
.000
(.003)
.202
(10.350)
.267
(.680)
.484
(.790)
.572
(1.390)
1.841
(.733)
.025
(.870)
⫺.026
(⫺1.140)
⫺.134
(⫺.890)
.068
(1.400)
⫺.134
(⫺3.910)
.059
(.260)
.054
(1.770)
⫺.072
(⫺3.300)
.307
(2.280)
.265
(1.532)
⫺.392
(⫺3.069)
.331
(.433)
Note.—All models also control region and year dummy variables, as described in the text.
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TABLE A3
Predictors of School Outcomes for High-Income Sample
Probit Partial Derivative
Variable
Gini coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State mean income/$1,000 . . . .
State %black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State %Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State unemployment rate . . . . .
Returns to schooling . . . . . . . . . .
Log parental income . . . . . . . . . .
Child is black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Parent’s years of schooling . . .
Segregation between school
districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Per pupil expenditures on
schools/$1,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
College tuition/$1,000 . . . . . . . . .
Grants for college tuition . . . . .
OLS Coefficient
High School
Graduate
Enrolled in
College
Graduated
College
Years of
Schooling
⫺.247
(⫺.260)
⫺.013
(⫺2.470)
.002
(1.100)
.001
(.320)
⫺.001
(⫺.320)
.430
(.250)
.054
(2.010)
.029
(1.580)
.017
(5.280)
.908
(.420)
⫺.005
(⫺.410)
⫺.002
(⫺.570)
⫺.008
(⫺1.820)
.003
(.440)
5.064
(1.330)
.268
(5.510)
⫺.061
(⫺.960)
.064
(6.760)
⫺1.049
(⫺.540)
⫺.006
(⫺.550)
⫺.002
(⫺.670)
⫺.003
(⫺.760)
⫺.004
(⫺.750)
3.028
(1.000)
.157
(4.950)
⫺.132
(⫺2.640)
.055
(7.750)
3.545
(.420)
⫺.016
(⫺.354)
⫺.005
(⫺.312)
⫺.018
(⫺1.095)
.004
(.163)
7.167
(.436)
1.051
(6.379)
⫺.456
(⫺2.504)
.219
(8.790)
.743
(1.920)
.767
(.940)
.745
(1.130)
3.888
(1.086)
.049
(1.820)
⫺.024
(⫺1.070)
⫺.003
(⫺.020)
⫺.006
(⫺.100)
⫺.135
(⫺3.020)
.646
(2.240)
.014
(.300)
⫺.066
(⫺1.930)
.859
(4.160)
.066
(.289)
⫺.251
(⫺1.445)
2.532
(2.230)
Note.—All models also control region and year dummy variables, as described in the text.
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Educational Attainment
TABLE A4
Predictors of School Outcomes for Low-Income Sample
Probit Partial Derivative
Variable
Gini coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State mean income/$1,000 . . . .
State %black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State %Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State unemployment rate . . . . .
Returns to schooling . . . . . . . . . .
Log parental income . . . . . . . . . .
Child is black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Parent’s years of schooling . . .
Segregation between school
districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Per pupil expenditures on
schools/$1,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
College tuition/$1,000 . . . . . . . . .
Grants for college tuition . . . . .
OLS Coefficient
High School
Graduate
Enrolled in
College
Graduated
College
Years of
Schooling
⫺1.145
(⫺.750)
.007
(.600)
.002
(.650)
⫺.008
(⫺1.640)
⫺.014
(⫺2.050)
5.518
(1.570)
.053
(1.600)
⫺.032
(⫺.810)
.041
(6.310)
⫺1.876
(⫺1.260)
⫺.021
(⫺2.210)
.008
(2.220)
.000
(.100)
⫺.004
(⫺.710)
⫺.740
(⫺.250)
.016
(.490)
.093
(2.500)
.039
(5.330)
⫺2.156
(⫺3.150)
⫺.014
(⫺3.270)
.002
(1.430)
⫺.002
(⫺.960)
⫺.002
(⫺.850)
.710
(.490)
.007
(.470)
⫺.002
(⫺.140)
.009
(3.090)
⫺14.395
(⫺2.110)
⫺.070
(⫺1.710)
.033
(2.088)
⫺.016
(⫺.848)
⫺.036
(⫺1.402)
18.820
(1.336)
.093
(.660)
.205
(1.463)
.181
(7.001)
⫺.778
(⫺.880)
.207
(.270)
.007
(.020)
⫺1.810
(⫺.610)
⫺.061
(⫺1.140)
⫺.000
(⫺.610)
⫺.273
(⫺.820)
.173
(2.780)
⫺.078
(⫺1.910)
⫺.606
(⫺2.300)
.067
(2.530)
⫺.053
(⫺2.720)
⫺.246
(⫺1.840)
.445
(1.564)
⫺.548
(⫺2.928)
⫺3.170
(⫺2.854)
Note.—All models also control region and year dummy variables, as described in the text.
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Final Report (15%)
• Goal of this segment: Write a report on your findings
I Individual report!
I Main focus: Question/Topic you focused on in the research segment
• What should always be covered:
I Motivation: Why did you pick your topic? Why is it interesting? (Refer
back to magazine article and empirical evidence.)
I
I
Analysis of Existing Research: What is the state of research on the topic?
Description of research methods, datasets etc.
Discussion: What is the main takeaway from the literature? Compare and
contrast findings. What is your take on the topic? What is missing in the
existing literature?
• Deadline for the first report: Feb 25, 2018 at 6pm
Expectations for Final Report
• Intended to show the individual student’s grasp of the subject
æ Independent work, copying will be penalized
• Summary of what was presented and worked on throughout the module
• Grade will depend on clarity of text and quality of content
• Length: 3-4 pages. Use of tables and figures is encouraged, but they should
be placed in the appendix (which won’t count toward the 3-4 pages of main
text)
The Manchester School Vol 83 No. 4
doi: 10.1111/manc.12064
423–450
July 2015
DIRECT AND INDIRECT INFLUENCES OF PARENTAL
BACKGROUND ON CHILDREN’S EARNINGS: A
COMPARISON ACROSS COUNTRIES AND GENDERS*
by
MICHELE RAITANO
Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome
and
FRANCESCO VONA
OFCE Sciences-Po and Skema Business School, Nice
The association between parental occupation and children’s earnings in
eight EU countries is compared using the European Union Survey on
Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data set, analysing: (i)
residual background correlations (RBCs) on earnings, controlling for
children’s education and occupation, and (ii) patterns by gender, controlling for selection into employment. Findings on cross-country differences
confirm well-known differences in intergenerational income inequality.
RBCs are statistically significant irrespective of gender in the UK, Spain
and Italy, for men in France and Ireland, for women in Denmark and not
significant in Germany and Finland. Not controlling for selection delivers downward biased estimates of RBCs, highlighting the effect of family
background on employability.
1
INTRODUCTION
The analysis of intergenerational inequality and social mobility has
attracted increased attention by applied economists in last few decades. The
recent availability of new data for several countries has allowed comparisons of country differences in terms of intergenerational income inequality,
usually measured by the intergenerational elasticity β that is estimated
regressing children’s log income (when adult) on parental income
(Bjorklund and Jäntti, 2009; Blanden, 2013). For European countries,
empirical studies generally converge on the following country taxonomy:1
Nordic countries are the most mobile, followed by Germany and by other
central European countries with France in the worst position of these,
whereas Anglo-Saxon and Southern European countries are the least
mobile of all European countries.
* Manuscript received 9.11.12; final version received 4.4.14.
1
For a review of the several studies computing intergenerational income inequality in different
countries, see Solon (2002), Corak (2006, 2013), d’Addio (2007), Bjorklund and Jäntti
(2009) and Blanden (2013).
© 2014 The University of Manchester and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
423
424
The Manchester School
While the β elasticities allow the quantification of the size of
intergenerational income inequality, they do not provide insights into which
transmission mechanisms explain the association between parental and children’s earnings. This issue is particularly relevant for cross-country analyses.
By way of example, the transmission of human capital is likely to be relatively
more important in countries with a heterogeneous schooling system such as
the UK; in turn, the influence of family background on employability and
labour market outcomes is usually perceived as more important in Southern
countries such as Italy and Spain. The importance of these mechanisms is also
likely to vary across genders in that female participation heavily depends on
welfare policies and on optimal household decisions (Gornick and Meyers,
2003; Raaum et al., 2008). Except for a few studies,2 estimates of
intergenerational income elasticities have usually been carried out for men
only to get rid of participation constraints, which are particularly cumbersome to address for women.
This paper contributes to the active strand of literature on cross-country
differences in intergenerational inequality by investigating the role of different
transmission mechanisms and of their heterogeneous influence across genders.
More specifically, we compare eight EU countries (Germany, France, Spain,
Italy, the UK, Ireland, Denmark and Finland) for which we expect a large
variation in the importance of these mechanisms, reflecting differences in
welfare policies, culture, labour markets and educational systems.
Taking advantage of the rich information contained in the 2005 module
on intergenerational inequality of the European Union Survey on Income
and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we can distinguish the influence of family
background at various stages of the children’s life cycle. To fully exploit the
possibility offered by the EU-SILC, we develop a conceptual framework that
stresses the role of human capital accumulation on children’s prospects, as
postulated by the standard approach (Becker and Tomes, 1979, 1986), but
also focuses on labour market outcomes, such as participation, employability
and occupational sorting. This approach allows us to derive a direct ‘residual’
correlation between family background and children’s earnings (RBC henceforth), obtained once controlling for the indirect influence of background on
education and occupational sorting.
The novel result of this paper descends in a straightforward manner
from the simple distinction between direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. In particular, we show that the differences between ‘mobile’ and
‘immobile’ countries are mainly captured by direct RBC and less by the
influence of family background on educational and occupational attainments. Moreover, we show that RBC is underestimated when the decision to
2
Among these, see Chadwick and Solon (2002) and Hirvonen (2008), respectively, referring to the
USA and Sweden, and Jäntti et al. (2006) and Raaum et al. (2008), who compare Nordic
countries, the UK and the USA.
© 2014 The University of Manchester and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Direct and Indirect Influences of Parental Background
425
participate in the labour force is not explicitly accounted for. Especially for
women, participation is influenced by family background, and modelling it
using a Heckman two-step procedure could help to obtain unbiased RBCs.
The EU-SILC is the only data set that consents to analyse the
intergenerational inequality in EU countries by means of a homogenous
survey. As a main drawback, however, the EU-SILC does not contain information on parental income. We hence use parental occupation as a proxy of
family background. In making this choice, we follow rich sociological literature pointing to parental occupation as the best predictor of children’s success.
The main claim of this literature is that parental occupation is not only a good
proxy for unobservable aspects of human capital (Willis, 1986), but it also
captures the individual’s position in the social scale, the capacity to influence
economic decisions or becoming part of certain social networks (Erikson and
Goldthorpe, 1992; Ganzeboom and Treiman, 1996). Furthermore, as noted by
Ermisch et al. (2006), parental occupation is also likely to be an adequate
measure of people’s permanent socio-economic status, as the position of
individuals in the occupational hierarchy is relatively stable over time.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces our
conceptual framework. Section 3 illustrates in detail the data set and our
proxy of family background. Section 4 shows preliminary evidence that
indirect transmission mechanisms cannot account for cross-country differences in the effects of parental background on child earnings. Sections 5 and
6 directly address the issues of cross-country and cross-gender differences in
RBCs respectively. Section 7 briefly concludes.
2
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Traditional economists’ view on intergenerational inequality focuses on the
key role played by family background in the accumulation of human capital.
In the literature, the association between parental characteristics and children’s human …
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